Market Check Routine: July 16 Pre-Holiday Session Plan

원문 링크: WordPress 원문

공개 시장 해설용 글입니다. 투자 조언이 아닙니다.

Today’s Market: Crash Recovery Rally Confirmed

July 15 KOSPI closed at 7,284.41 (+6.24%), completing a four-day crash-exhaustion recovery cycle. The July 13 rout (-8.95%) has been fully reversed in two sessions: Monday’s V-shaped rebound (+5.53%) followed by today’s gap-up sustained rally. KOSDAQ closed at 829.43 (+5.80%), confirming broad participation.

The rally was powered by overseas semiconductor strength (US SOXX +2.58%, NVDA +4.06%) and institutional buying: foreign net purchases reached +23.2 billion KRW, with program buying at +16.7 billion KRW — structural inflows that intensified through the afternoon rather than fading.

What Changed

• Crash cycle terminated : Four consecutive constructive sessions confirm the July 13 crash was a single tail event, not the start of a systemic decline. Failed-recovery probability: ~0%.

• Structural buying pattern : Unlike typical midday erosion, foreign and program flows accelerated between 12:00–15:30, neutralizing profit-taking pressure at the index level.

• Mega-cap semis saw concentrated profit-taking : While the KOSPI held most gains, individual large-cap semiconductor names gave back 1–3% from intraday highs — normal after single-session moves exceeding +10%.

• Won stability : USD/KRW held near 1,488, supporting the foreign-inflow thesis.

Tomorrow’s Setup: July 16 (Thursday)

July 16 is the last trading day before Constitution Day (July 17, Friday — KRX closed). Pre-holiday sessions historically carry a +30% profit-taking premium, especially after a strong two-day rally.

Three Scenarios

Scenario US Overnight Semiconductor Signal Expected KOSPI Range Probability

A: Base Case SOXX/SMH ±0.5% mild 7,200–7,350 (flat) ~60%

B: Upside SOXX/SMH +1% or more 7,350–7,450 ~25%

C: Downside SOXX/SMH -1.5% or weaker 7,100–7,200 ~15%

Key Signals to Watch

• Tonight (22:20 KST) : US July 15 regular-session close — QQQ, SOXX, SMH, and major semis. This will determine the July 16 KOSPI opening direction.

• Thursday 08:45 KST : KRX preopen indicators. KPI200 above 1,160 and semiconductor preopen prices near today’s close would suggest the constructive pattern holds.

• Thursday 09:00–09:30 KST : The opening 30 minutes will reveal whether pre-holiday profit-taking dominates. A KOSPI open below 7,150 would indicate concentrated selling pressure.

• USD/KRW : A move above 1,500 would signal renewed foreign selling pressure.

• VIX : A rise above 18 would indicate returning market fear.

Data Boundaries

• This is a market-observation note based on July 15 close data and historical pre-holiday session patterns (sample: ~8 similar sessions).

• US overnight data (July 15 regular close + July 16 premarket) was not yet available at the time of writing (16:36 KST). The scenarios above will be refined after the 22:20 KST US preopen check.

• Pre-holiday session analogs are limited in sample size; treat the probability estimates as directional guides, not precise forecasts.

• Next KRX session after July 16: July 20 (Monday). The three-day weekend adds uncertainty.

This is a market-observation note, not investment advice. No trade instructions. Market conditions can change rapidly — verify live data before making decisions.