US Market First-Hour Signal Note — July 13, 2026

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Market observation note — July 13, 2026 · US Market First-Hour Check

Market Snapshot: Semiconductors Lead Decline, Not a Broad Panic

The US market opened with a tech-and-semiconductor-focused gap down, followed by stabilization in the first hour. The Nasdaq-heavy names took the brunt of selling, while the broader S&P 500 and Dow were relatively contained — not a broad-based panic.

Signal Level (10:30 AM ET) Change vs Friday Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) 717.31 -1.13% Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) 564.63 -2.87% Semiconductor ETF (SMH) 597.57 -2.20% NVIDIA (NVDA) 208.18 -1.32% AMD 546.65 -2.01% Micron (MU) 937.75 -4.24% TSMC (TSM) 431.02 -0.71% Korea ETF (EWY) 171.35 -6.63% S&P 500 Futures 7,598.75 -0.28% VIX 16.29 +8.38% US 10-Year Yield 4.593% +0.024pp WTI Crude Oil $74.71 +4.62% USD/KRW ₩1,494.88 -0.27%

Three Things to Know

1. Semiconductors Took the Hardest Hit — but Stabilized Quickly

SOXX gapped down -3.12% at the open and SMH -2.33%, far worse than the broader QQQ (-1.06%). However, the first hour showed no acceleration: SOXX recovered +0.26%, AMD +1.36%, and Micron +1.57% intraday. This suggests the selling was concentrated in the opening gap, with limited follow-through.

2. Not a Panic — Gold Fell, Bonds Were Calm

Key panic indicators are absent. Gold dropped -2.44% (not being bought as a safe haven). The US 10-year yield barely moved (+0.024pp). The VIX at 16.29 is elevated but far below the 20+ threshold that signals systemic stress. The Dow (-0.05%) and S&P 500 (-0.28%) were barely affected.

3. Oil Surge Adds a Separate Pressure Layer

WTI crude jumped +4.62% to $74.71, driven by US-Iran tensions. This is a separate risk channel from the semiconductor weakness, but it compounds the cautious mood.

What This Means for Korea (July 14)

Today’s KOSPI -8.95% circuit-breaker event is reverberating through global markets. With US semiconductors soft but not crashing, the Korean market is likely to open lower but not face another extreme rout. Key points:

• KOSPI: Gap-down opening of -2% to -3%, then range-bound near the 6,600 level.

• Semiconductor names: Under pressure from SOXX/SMH weakness. Micron’s -4.24% adds specific concern for memory/HBM names.

• Won strength (₩1,494.88): A modest positive signal — foreign capital outflow pressure may be easing.

Next Checkpoints

Time (KST) What to Watch 06:45 (Jul 14) US market close review 08:45 (Jul 14) Korea pre-open indicative prices 09:00–09:30 (Jul 14) Korea open sequence

Market observation note. Data has limits — verify independently before making decisions. This is not investment advice or a trading recommendation.